As British consumers rediscover a sense of confidence about the future, they have started to eat out more. NPD is forecasting that the British foodservice market will grow by 1.1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016.
The NPD Group says momentum is well underway following the 0.9% growth in out-of-home (OOH) foodservice visits in Britain 2014, the first rise in many years.
NPD Group complete forecast
With foodservice seeing fiercer competition and as consumer habits continue to evolve, the NPD Group has produced a detailed complete forecast of British OOH foodservice trends for 2015 and 2016. It begins by analysing the British foodservice sector, details the UK’s economic performance and prospects, and then looks at important consumer trends affecting foodservice. The bulk of the report focuses on forecasts, covering the industry overall and then zooming in on quick service restaurants (QSR), full service restaurants (FSR), casual dining and the travel & leisure sector. There is data on sub-channels too, such as burgers, chicken, fish and chips, sandwiches and bakery within the QSR channel, and hotels, in-store restaurants, bars, clubs and motorway services for the travel & leisure sector.
Which channels will grow? Six ‘star’ players…
“This is our first-ever complete forecast for the British eat-out foodservice market,” says Cyril Lavenant, NPD’s Director of Foodservice for the UK and France. “Ranked on spend growth to the end of 2016, we are predicting six ‘star’ players – casual dining, quick-service operators serving chicken, pizza/Italian, burgers and coffee, and the hotel channel.
“But the forecasts are only half the story. Knowing the reasons for why some channels will enjoy growth, and why others are going to suffer, is the key to understanding the market.”
3 key consumer trends
NPD says three key important consumer trends are impacting the foodservice industry:
- First, thanks to a brighter economy, consumers are looking to treat themselves and their kids.
- Second, they want more choice and diversity and are much more willing to try something new.
- Third, when consumers go out to eat, they want a ‘full experience’ and the sense of a ‘social or family occasion’.
These trends will impact foodservice channels in different ways with the branded channels enjoying better growth potential than the independents. The NPD Group says consumers will continue to seek value across the board.
Pubs are set to overtake the FSR channel and will be driven by the top chain brands. Pubs will notch up 1.29 billion visits by end 2016 against 1.18 billion visits for FSR
Casual dining to top £5 billion spend by end 2016
NPD Group is also bullish about the entire casual dining segment because the restaurants are exceptionally well positioned to meet core consumer needs for something that combines ‘newness and diversity’ with the opportunity for a “family-oriented treat”.
Casual dining will outgrow all other channels and achieve spend of well over £5 billion by end 2016, finishing at 13.7% ahead of the casual dining spend recorded end of 2014.
The NPD CREST Foodservice Forecasts 2015-2016 is in PowerPoint format and runs to over 80 pages using data from the CREST consumer panel. You can obtain a free summary of the deck and scope of the study from The NPD Group: just email cyril.lavenant@npd.com or jack.macintyre@npd.com. The full report is on sale at £4,900.
About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group provides global information and advisory services to drive better business decisions. By combining unique data assets with unmatched industry expertise, it helps its clients track their markets, understand consumers, and drive profitable growth. For more information, visit www.npd.com and npdgroupblog.com. Follow on Twitter: @npdgroup
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